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世事難料

國內染疫人數還很少時,就曾經擔心,當全世界的國家多數人都已經染疫,只剩台灣死守邊境,在國內過度依賴出口下,很可能擋不住要求開放境管的壓力。

國內疫情發展也可能面臨類似的窘境,當染疫的人多到一定程度,不肯戴口罩的人多到一定程度,甚至人數壓過口罩政策人數時,壓力的風向很可能會改變。

當何美鄉明明在鼓吹綜合免疫是最好的防疫,又怕K推說沒有鼓勵大家染疫時,已經是很明顯的方向指標。換個角度看,既然擋不住,控制人數增加坡度、減緩過渡時期的恐慌、壓力,恐怕也是一種另類的超前部署。

其實,個人覺得多數人已經輕微染疫過,可能類似最早期磐石艦染疫的狀況,多數人無症狀,(強烈懷疑密閉空間中,多數人是靠自己的免疫機制壓制病毒),這些人因為沒有症狀、沒有後續追蹤、沒有篩檢,國內多數人可能因為不同程度接觸境外移入的病毒,免疫機制產生不同程度的反應或抗體,早已和病毒共存多時,當身體出狀況才會顯現症狀,而其中一部分人在主動或被動篩檢下才被發現。也可能因此,在面對後續變種病毒時,即使染疫也多數症狀輕微。

科學家對人體、醫學現象,尤其是微觀醫學,累積的知識有限,面對新病毒如何因應,本該保守以對,但是有的人喜歡犯險、有的人保守,衝擊下,對很多人都是考驗。尤其是個人的防疫哲學觀和多數人相左時,難免會懷疑民主可以這樣用嗎?

民主難道可以允許多數人要求少數人一起冒險?

https://nyti.ms/3sIhXrd

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media2.fairhealth.org/whitepaper/asset/Patients%20Diagnosed%20with%20Post-COVID%20Conditions%20-%20A%20FAIR%20Health%20White%20Paper.pdf

(Drawing on longitudinal data from FAIR Health’s repository of billions of private healthcare claims, this report studies the population of 78,252 patients in the repository who were diagnosed with the U09.9 code from October 1, 2021, to January 31, 2022. )


Patients Diagnosed with Post-COVID Conditions

An Analysis of Private Healthcare Claims Using the Official ICD-10 Diagnostic Code

A FAIR Health White Paper, May 18, 2022

More than 75% of long Covid patients in the U.S. were not hospitalized when they were first infected — yet months later, they were experiencing symptoms that were diagnosed as post-Covid conditions, a large study found. https://nyti.ms/3sIhXrd

The study, conducted by FAIR Health, a nonprofit organization that focuses on health care costs and insurance issues, found that for 76 percent of the patients, the initial coronavirus infection did not make them sick enough to require hospitalization. Yet months later, they were experiencing symptoms that were diagnosed as post-Covid conditions.


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